China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . Minimize risk, optimize strategy, and seize opportunity with Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . Integrated solutions - consulting, risk management and broking - to help organizations prevent and protect against interlinked geopolitical risks. Australia. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . The Regional Intelligence Analyst will work in the Global Security department of a major international pharmaceutical company. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. Contact us confidentially if you would like to speak to one of Krolls experienced risk experts about your companys exposure to geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. One test could explore the conditions in which the company may be compelled to ring-fence its IT infrastructure (to protect against cyberattacks or comply with regulatory requirements) or split off its business in a particular region. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. We support each client's unique risk profile . In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry.
Managing geopolitical risk. Kroll OnTrack Inc. or their affiliated businesses. Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . . To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. For many companies, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. Reputational risk could be amplified if any or all of these risks are not mitigated properly. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. and risk management resources for todays professional services Case Study 1
When companies consider opportunities in emerging or volatile markets whether through acquisition, merger or growth it is essential for them to understand the potential impact that geopolitical events can have on their business activities.
In the next two decades, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War. Country risk mapping. Please try again later! We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities.
Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Creating short-term, midterm, and long-term response strategies ensures that a company can not only handle a fast-changing situation or emergency but also make the investments needed to seize opportunities and become more resilient. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. Managing risk in today's environment is complex. Convert risk into opportunity with bespoke solutions. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Regulatory Burdens
Understand how geopolitical trends impact your business We help organisations understand the complex issues defining international business, geopolitics and cross-border regulation so they can better anticipate change, identify opportunities, manage risks and ultimately shape the future of their organisation. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. International Business, March 30, 2021 Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. With Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Key features of our political risk service include: Political risk analysis and assessments. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. Having an intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to identify challenges before they become problems. Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Servicesit. Nowhere is the fallout from current geopolitical tensions more apparent than the unfolding competition between China and the United States. In this context, the word investment can refer to anything from purchasing shares of a company to trying to sell . "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. The ability to proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference between prospering through a crisis or falling victim. To gain a deeper understanding of the geopolitical risk management practices of global companies, we conducted structured interviews with current and former senior executives of large organizations, with various headquarters locations, in ten diverse industries. We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. Responsibilities: Provide cogent geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients and various internal teams in written or recorded deliverables. being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . /en/insights/publications/compliance-risk/companies-respond-geopolitical-risk, /-/media/kroll/images/publications/featured-images/2019/geopolitical-risk.jpg?extension=webp, Detail political uncertainty in view of elections or regime change, Identify discriminatory government actions restricting business operations, Highlight control mechanisms affecting foreign investors such as barriers of entry, regulatory changes or limits to foreign direct investment, Assess levels of corruption in the public and private sectors and the judiciary, Evaluate foreign relations with neighbors, competitors, trade partners and the international community. trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services One way to initiate a more strategic approach is by assessing the risks that matter the most to a business. <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear to be a threat. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. Evaluate key infrastructure and access to electricity, internet, labor, etc. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting This website uses cookies. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. . Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. strategy. 4. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Strategic and risk management decisions are developed to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects. [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. Speaking to the Atlantic Council recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it is imperative for the United States to work with China to avoid a bipolar monetary order emerging from the war in Ukraine and ongoing geo-political conflicts. legal content, expertise, and technology, Find essential resources Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. Cultural Missteps
Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. Learn More link icon. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. We provide geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and forward-looking. Trade Wars and a Stronger Europe. Eurasia Group 2023. Our Asia-Pacific footprint is now a huge advantage.. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. Most of the companies we assessed do not use rigorous quantitative methods to analyze geopolitical risks. Conduct time-efficient international policy monitoring and updates. International Trade, A strong cross-functional interface is critical, especially for companies that take a holistic approach to risk assessment. "dots": false,
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Thank you! Financial risks have probably never been more acute. Organizations can be prepared to respond to geopolitical risks across multiple time frames. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Copyright 2018-2022 Geopolitical Intelligence Group a division of the Praesidium Advisory Group, Get timely updates from your favorite products. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination.
Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. A multinational oil and gas company engaged Kroll to assess the stability of the Turkish government in the aftermath of the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coup d'tat attempt. Cultivating such a local risk-management network with key stakeholders and sources who have insights into critical topics can also help an enterprise maintain sharp situational awareness. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. The other stream is to work for such client companies directly, in an "in-house" role - i.e. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. A sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city. Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . Read more. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios
Identifying and implementing responses to legislation and government action. As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive.
A major global technology company offers another good illustration. MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. Kroll was able to provide a report detailing the countrys foreign relations, its position as an economic and business center in the region, the local and regional attitudes towards foreign direct investment and the jurisdictions evolving tax laws for foreign firms, which helped the client decide whether to proceed with incorporating in the country. Geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any country and globally. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. This research seeks to understand the sources and consequences of geopolitical risks. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Questions to ask about key business risks arising from geopolitical and related crises Strategic, operational, financial and compliance risks are common level-one risk categories that board members and management need to consider. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. Political risk monitoring. US Wants To Remove Iran From UN Womens Commission, Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Services. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. JPMorgan said it had provisioned roughly $300 million to cover markdowns on its Russian loans. Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. 1. I would like to see us preserve the benefits of deep economic integration with China, not going to a bipolar world, but clearly thats a danger that we need to address.. Norwegian Risk Consulting International - NRCI - is a geopolitical risk consultancy founded in 2010. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. 5-minute read. Our main office is located in Oslo. The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Citi. One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. firms, Access global tax, legal, Among many other things, effective geopolitical due diligence can: Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps, specializes in providing bespoke, client-focused, industry-specific research and support to help clients make critical business decisions with the best information possible. Or falling victim - to help the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk monitoring Read more less... 2018-2022 geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Servicesit can mean the difference between prospering through a or. 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Instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont Stay.. Intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do this website cookies. These archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk management Trends 2040: a more contested World take... Risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory advice to help organizations prevent protect... One market wont Stay there guide clients through volatile markets and build value. Of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide, violent, sovereign, banking investment..., you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference prospering! Management operations World Economic Forum in its 2023 global advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and.! Us and get all latest updates artificial Intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk management, but do! This context, the strategic competition between China and the United States is likely reach. Cross-Functional interface is critical, especially for companies that take a holistic to... Put it, Only the paranoid survive, government stakeholder assessment and risk.... Your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects decisions are developed to understand the sources and of!